Currently, around 800,000 people in Germany are directly employed in the automotive industry, i.e. by manufacturers or suppliers. They generate almost five percent of the gross value added in Germany. For the Beryls study on automobile production In Germany, Stefan Schneeberger and his team not only projected the development of car production until 2028, but also related this to the expected real gross domestic product of the countries. This puts the development in countries like Hungary, where growth of 60 percent is expected with the new e-car plants from BMW and BYD, into perspective again – since this growth takes place on a much smaller basis. Berylls expects growth of 13 percent in Germany, 15 percent in China and nine percent in the USA during this period. However, things look bleak for Japan (-14 percent) and South Korea (-19 percent).
“Germany is the only country among the major manufacturing countries where the growth in car production exceeds the growth in real GDP,” said Schneeberger at our most recent online conference. “The auto industry will remain extremely important for Germany in the future.” But this is still about the entire auto industry, not just about e-mobility.
But here too, the picture that Berylls paints is rather positive: according to the forecast, an average of three out of four cars built in Germany will be purely electric by 2030. Globally it will be slightly less than every second new car, and in China around 60 percent. E-production in Germany will increase, especially from 2026, when important model changes are pending at manufacturers such as Mercedes, BMW and Audi and new e-platforms debut. But Schneeberger also provides a big but: Berylls sees a major cluster risk in Germany because the local auto industry is dependent on just a few companies. If the upcoming electric models flop and fewer cars are simply built, this will have a huge impact on the entire industry and supplier landscape for a few large companies.
In Germany, Schneeberger sees a second risk: The growth that Berylls sees for the domestic industry in production does not come from German car manufacturers – they are “only” gradually converting production in the existing factories. The growth comes primarily from Tesla and the Gigafactory in Grünheide – and possible other players from abroad who are settling here.
“Future industrial policy measures and funding must be tailored to local production,” says the management consultant. “The dynamics of competition from China can suddenly cause disruption. Who knows, maybe there will be a model from a Chinese manufacturer among the top ten in 2024?” With the Tesla Model 3 in 8th place, there is at least one car there that is built in China.
